What Is Climate Change? How Do We Know It Is Occurring?

Earth's climate changes naturally, moving from warmth to ice age and back again many times over its long history. Before the 20th century, change was natural – and mostly gradual. Human activities, particularly our intensive use of carbon-based fuels, are contributing to a large degree in the dramatic acceleration of climate change.

Temperature anomalies over the past 150 years are represented in Figure 1, below. From 1850 (approximately the beginning of the Industrial Revolution) until about 1914, temperature anomalies were both above and below the Earth's average temperature.

Figure 1

Since the end of the First World War, when the mass production of automobiles for general civilian use began, temperature anomalies have only been above the average (i.e., warmer). The widespread use of the combustion engine is responsible for the release of ever-increasing amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

This warming trend is just one of many factors that have led an overwhelming number of the world's top climatologists and weather specialists to conclude that rapid, abnormal climate change is underway. The ramifications and result of this change are not completely known, nor is it clear that these forces, once set in motion, can be controlled. What we can control now are those contributors to global warming that are man-made: CO2, SO2, N2O and others that are by-products of our industrial and transportation activities.

Many residents of countries in colder climates may believe that any 'global warming' will be of 'benefit' to them. This is not true. ‘Climate change’ is a better characterization of the disruptive effect of global weather patterns. It is presumed that this change will be the same around the world, i.e., that the world’s temperature will rise evenly on all continents. Instead, it will be uneven: some areas will become colder and others warmer. Northern Europe could become colder while at the same time the Sahara could become even hotter. The effect will be a reduction in the size of the Earth's temperate zones, with corresponding expansion of areas that are subject to extreme cold or heat and are inhospitable for human habitation. This uneven heating and cooling of the Earth's surface due to greenhouse gases is shown in Figure 2, below.

Figure 2

Prevailing winds in the northern hemisphere are westerly, while in the southern hemisphere they are easterly. As can be seen from Figure 2, winds coming from the east over Africa would pick up still more heat and moisture from a very warm South Atlantic, probably spawning more frequent, and stronger, hurricanes over the Caribbean and southeastern United States. Other winds that cross to South America could provide greater precipitation along the east cost of South America, but dry out parts of the Amazonian rainforest.

Researchers Syukuro Manabe and Ronald Stouffer of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., have predicted that thermohaline shutdown could precipitate a sudden drop in North Atlantic water temperatures of over 13 degrees Fahrenheit. Westerly winds will chill over the North Atlantic and, in turn, bring colder air to Europe. Since many currently warm and semi-tropical areas of Europe are at similar latitudes to northern Canada, elimination of the moderating influence of the warm, tropical jet stream will result in substantially lower average temperatures in Europe.

Similar events would occur in Asia, the Pacific and other parts of the world.

If we change our energy sources and reorganize our industrial processes, we will have the dual benefit of not detrimentally affecting the Earth's ecosystems and weather patterns, and providing ourselves with a plentiful long-term supply of energy from renewable sources. The Kyoto Protocol and Montreal Accord are mechanisms meant to assist in the change to a sustainable economic and energy model from our present unsustainable activities.

The Kyoto Protocol is all about change.

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